How the Very Warm Temperature of the Gulf of Mexico Might Lead to the Tampa Bay Rays Moving Out of Town

We talk a lot about the impacts of anthropogenic climate change. Rising sea levels, heat waves, melting glaciers -- they are all changes our planet is experiencing as the temperature rises. However, these can seem a little abstract if you're not experiencing them yourself. Sometimes it takes a concrete example of just how climate change is influencing not only changes to our landscape and ecosystems, but also to things like ... baseball.

The Tampa Bay Rays play at Tropicana Field, a domed stadium in St. Petersburg, on the "ocean side" of Tampa Bay. When Hurricane Milton struck in the middle of October, much of the mid-Gulf Coast of Florida was slammed by heavy rains, high winds and a very large storm surge. Even though Milton made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane after weakening slightly, it did cause immense damage that might total over $34 billion, making it one of the most costly in the country's history. Luckily, only 35 people perished from the storm (that we know of as of late November).

One of the most dramatic scenes from the storm was the damage to Tropicana Field. The roof, which was made of fiberglass fabric, was designed to withstand winds of ~125 miles per hour. However, years of deferred maintenance (or even replacement) of the roof meant that when Hurricane Milton hit with winds at least 120 miles per hour, the roof of Tropicana Field was destroyed. Not only that, but with the roof in tatters, the heavy rains flooded the stadium that lacked any field drainage (because it was covered by a dome!)

The initial estimate to repair the roof was around $56 million, much of which might have been covered by insurance put on the facility by the city of St. Petersburg (as they own it). However, there is a complication. The Rays and the city had come to a tentative agreement to build the baseball team a new stadium on the site of Tropicana Field, opening potentially as soon as 2028. So, the question became: do you fix a stadium you're going to tear down in a few years?

First, the stadium. The city of St. Petersburg recently voted to not fix the roof of Tropicana Field. I won't go down go over all the city-versus-team politics, but suffice to say, there seems to be little initiative to fix the dome. Even if the roof is fixed, it wouldn't be ready until 2026, so an added corollary question is a big one: where do the Rays play in 2025? More on that later.

So, how does this link to climate change? Well, it comes down to the nature of hurricanes. As average air temperature in the latitudes of Florida increase, the ocean water temperature increases as well. We saw this dramatically with ocean temperatures above 90F around Florida in 2024. That is very hot for gulf waters, which is bad news for the ocean ecosystems, but also bad news if you don't want to get battered by hurricanes.

Hurricane Milton formed on the far side of the Gulf of Mexico near the Yucatan Peninsula. That means the hurricane moved only about 750 miles (1,200 kilometers) before it hit the Tampa area. In fact, it reached Category 5 in only a few hundred miles before churning across the Gulf of Mexico and losing a little oomph before it struck the coast. How did it get so strong in such a short time and distance?

It comes down to the energy trapped as heat in the surface ocean waters. Hurricanes wind up by taking evaporating seawater and driving them upwards where the moisture-laden air condenses (it convects). The warmer the air and water, the more the storm will grow. Hurricanes extract so much heat energy from seawater, they will often leave a trail of cooled sea surface temperatures as they pass. The hot Gulf waters were more or less a massive fuel tank for Hurricane Milton.

Conditions were right for taking a small disturbance on the west side of the Gulf of Mexico and converting it into a monster hurricane when it reached the east side. Without the very warm waters produced from the overall warming of the planet's atmosphere, there wouldn't have been nearly as much energy for the storm to consume. The result was a massive hurricane hitting the west coast of Florida, nearly barreling directly into Tampa and St. Petersburg.

Where does that leave this tale of baseball woe? The Tampa Bay Rays will be playing 2025 in the New York Yankees spring training site, Steinbrenner Field. This minor league park (at the moment) is located across the Bay in the city of Tampa ... which is in a different county than St. Petersburg. This did not make the city of St. Petersburg happy. At the moment, the St. Petersburg city council has indicated it doesn't want to help fund the future $1.3 billion dollar new stadium anymore after a change in the city council and the machinations about the Rays home in 2025. They've given the team until December 1 to decide their future.

With the disagreement now between the Rays and the city, the future is definitely cloudy (dare I say stormy?) for a new stadium for the Rays. However, before when Tropicana Field was just an old stadium, it is now a former stadium, especially without repairs. The Rays will play 2025 in a minor league field and beyond that ... well, the team might just pull up stakes and move to one of the many cities vying for an MLB team like Nashville, Orlando, Portland or Charlotte. The storm that ripped up Tropicana Field, built up by humanity's impact on global climate, may be the catalyst for the Rays to leave Tampa or even Florida.

Even in 2025, the impacts of the hurricane will be felt by the team (beyond playing to smaller crowds). Steinbrenner Field isn't a dome and if anyone has been in Florida during mid-summer knows, it will be hot, humid and potentially rainy. Major League Baseball is anticipating this, so the Rays will now be at "home" for much more of the start and end of the season than the middle. The Rays new home also plays as a bit more of a hitters park considering the hot and humid conditions, meaning that we might expect more homers from Brandon Lowe and more runs given up by Drew Rasmussen. So, climate change will even play a role in the stats of all the players who stride onto Steinbrenner Field.

Now, in the grand scheme of things, this is low stakes. Whether the Rays stay in Tampa will not cause much pain and suffering beyond the diehard fans of Tampa baseball. Who knows, maybe the city and team will work things out, keeping the team around. However, many of the impacts of climate change are not going to be low stakes. Population migration from areas more prone to feel the reverberations of sea level rise, warmer summers, drought and more will cause conflict, politically and militarily.

As we saw during this month's COP29 meeting, many poorer countries are bearing the main brunt of climate change, yet those well-off countries (like the US) does seem to want to offer much to build more resilience and protect people. This imbalance will likely get worse. This doesn't mean things are hopeless, but if we want to adapt to the new world climate, then all these signs of change need to be taken seriously because things might become more dramatic.