Bad news for allergy sufferers: climate change may make your seasonal allergies last even longer. Scientists developed a model accounting for how different warming scenarios could affect pollen production and emissions.
What they found was, by the end of the century, warmer temperatures could kick off the spring allergy season 10 days to 40 days earlier and extend summer/fall emissions an extra 5 days to 15 days, the researchers report in the journal Nature Communications.
“These simulations indicate that increasing pollen and longer seasons will increase the likelihood of seasonal allergies,” said the authors of the study.
Climate Change Could Boost Allergens
For allergy sufferers, plant pollen triggers the immune system. Allergic reactions can include a scratchy throat, watery eyes, itchy skin, runny nose, and sneezing. About 50 million Americans have some kind of allergy, with trees, grasses, weeds, mold, and dust mites the most common.
Both rising temperature and increased CO2 will play roles in increasing the number of pollen-producing plants, as well as driving them to make, then release pollen even earlier. The models accounted for where pollen-producing plants are likely to grow more on Earth as the planet warms. But the lengthening of the season will likely play a bigger role than increased plant coverage.
Although this outcome is based on a computerized simulation, the probability of an extended allergy season linked to a warming world is very high.
Read More: Everything to Know About Allergies
Longer Season, Higher Pollen Count
Not only will warming extend the allergy season in both directions, it could also put more pollen into the air — both daily and over time. Simulations show rising temperature and precipitation boosting daily pollen emissions by about 35 percent to 40 percent. Total pollen emission yearly could rise by as much as 40 percent, according to the model.
Although this model relies on mathematical simulations, to make predictions, other studies have already shown that warming temperatures have impacted pollen and mold production.
For example, a study published in Nature analyzed number high-pollen count weeks in the San Francisco Bay area between 2002 and 2019 and showed increases over time as temperature and precipitation rose. Atmospheric CO2 and wildfire smoke were not factors.
Other work has shown effects of climate change on specific plants that produce pollen. For instance, ragweed pollen season in North America has lengthened since 1995. The amount varies depending by area. For example, the ragweed pollen season is now 16 days longer in Minneapolis than it was in 1995.
This article is not offering medical advice and should be used for informational purposes only.
Read More: Allergies are Common Today, but Did They Also Impact Our Ancient Ancestors?
Article Sources
Our writers at Discovermagazine.com use peer-reviewed studies and high-quality sources for our articles, and our editors review for scientific accuracy and editorial standards. Review the sources used below for this article:
Nature Communications. Projected climate-driven changes in pollen emission season length and magnitude over the continental United States
Nature. Increased duration of pollen and mold exposure are linked to climate change
Before joining Discover Magazine, Paul Smaglik spent over 20 years as a science journalist, specializing in U.S. life science policy and global scientific career issues. He began his career in newspapers, but switched to scientific magazines. His work has appeared in publications including Science News, Science, Nature, and Scientific American.
