With the U.N.'s COP29 climate conference underway in Baku, Azerbaijan, a flurry of unsettling news about global heating has emerged.
The summit — attended by diplomats from nearly 200 nations, and nearly 60,000 people in total — is intended to be a forum for discussion and adoption of solutions. But this year it's being roiled by even more controversy than usual. Meanwhile, with recent findings showing no easing of our climatic plight, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump is preparing to take power in Washington. And he, of course, has committed himself to unwinding the transition to climate-friendly energy sources.
Some of the recent climate news has been provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — an agency slated to be "broken up and downsized" in the now-infamous Project 2025, a conservative policy blueprint intended to guide the new administration.
According to NOAA, last month was the second warmest October on record, bested only by October of last year, and just by a tiny margin. For the year so far (January through October), NOAA calculates that Earth has experienced its warmest such period in records dating back to 1850.
Given the unrelenting planetary fever, 2024 almost certainly will beat out last year for the annual global heating crown, according to the agency.
Global heating is, of course, driven primarily by CO2 emissions. According to a new projection from the Global Carbon Project, emissions from fossil fuels will reach a record 37.4 billion metric tons in 2024. Although that's a modest rise of 0.8 percent over 2023, the world needs to reverse course and reduce emissions very quickly if global heating is to be tamed at a relatively manageable level.
That point is further emphasized in a new report, published at the COP summit by the International Cryosphere Climate Initiative. ICCI is dedicated to highlighting what science is revealing about the impact of climate change on regions of the world that are covered in ice and snow, either seasonally or year-round. The work is particularly important because the pace of change in the cryosphere is faster than anywhere else on earth — and what happens there can potentially affect us all.
Among many findings, the State of the Cryosphere 2024 Report concludes that national commitments under the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are far short of what's needed to limit global heating to no more than 1.5 degrees C. On our current course, the report says we'll see "significant overshoot" of that goal.
A slower transition from fossil fuels to zero-carbon sources of energy may seem economically advantageous in the short run. But this "locks in widespread future loss and damage from the cryosphere for decades and centuries, with adaptation needs far higher and more expensive, where still technically feasible," the report states.
Miriam Jackson, an ICCI glaciologist and climate scientist who contributed to the report, emphasizes that the impacts we're already seeing will only increase in frequency and intensity.
"Action to slow down/stop/reverse global warming is like saving for retirement," she told me in an email. "The earlier you start, the easier it is."
Among many conclusions, the report projects that over the long term, exceeding 1.5 degrees C of global heating could melt enough of Greenland and West Antarctica to raise sea level by 10 meters, or nearly 33 feet. About 75 percent of all cities with more than 5 million inhabitants exist below 10 meters of elevation, according to the report.
Leadership Is Needed — But Clearly Lacking
Avoiding that outcome, along with the intensification and frequency of weather extremes, will require strong leadership. But unfortunately, the recent U.S. election results, along with proceedings at this year's COP summit, suggest we may not be seeing much of it any time soon.
As I pointed out in a previous column, under the Project 2025 policy blueprint, published by the Heritage Foundation, NOAA should be "dismantled and many of its functions eliminated, sent to other agencies, privatized, or placed under the control of states and territories.”
From its networks of satellites and observation stations, along with its models and forecasts, NOAA generates terabytes of data every day related to every aspect of Earth's planetary life support systems. These irreplaceable data are crucial for understanding and responding to natural disasters and climate change.
It's not unreasonable to think that dismantling NOAA would result in significant degradation of this work — an outcome that would be akin to gouging out our eyes as we are speeding toward a climatic cliff.
One could hope that Project 2025, which was prepared outside of the Trump campaign, will have only limited influence in the new administration. But that would be naive.
During his first term, President Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Paris Agreement, a legally binding international climate treaty adopted by 196 parties at the COP21 meeting. Under President Biden, the United States rejoined, and then went on to enact far-reaching legislation to hasten the transition away from fossil fuels.
The president-elect has vowed to withdraw again, and also to stymie clean-energy while ramping up oil and gas production. He's also committed to blocking U.S. involvement in any future global climate agreements — like the kind often reached at COP summits.
But if developments at the ongoing COP29 are any guide, those seeking to hobble effective climate action may not need much help from the incoming president. As Angela Dewan, CNN's International Climate Editor, puts it in an analysis piece about the summit:
"In what should be one of the most urgent meetings of the year — aimed at slowing a global crisis fast spiraling out of control — the talks have descended into a circus of boycotts, political tirades and fossil fuels celebrations. Its host, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, has been its spectacular ringmaster."
And even before the conference began, the CEO of COP29, Elnur Soltanov, was secretly recorded speaking about the prospect of striking oil and gas deals during the two-week conference.
I asked Miriam Jackson, the glaciologist and climate scientist who contributed to the cryosphere report, what she was observing while attending COP29. She emailed me back to say that "my honest response may be unprintable," and then she offered this take:
"Many diplomats and other participants at COP29 are frustrated at the slow progress. Scientists are especially frustrated, as some of the delegations seem to be approaching this in the way of a business deal, rather than in how to most effectively deal with what we know is the biggest crisis facing humanity."
In a future column, I'll include more of Jackson's perspectives on the COP meeting, as well as what the cryosphere report has to say about the state of the icy parts of the world. I'll also include perspectives from two of her scientific collaborators on the report who are with her in Baku.
Between now and when the climate summit ends on Sunday, Nov. 22, negotiators may well agree on some salutary, diplomatic language about tackling climate change. But if what we're seeing is any guide, it's likely to be a thin veneer of shameless rhetoric hiding a lack of commitment to do anything meaningful.
That would be quite distressing, because there's really no way around the basic physics of greenhouse heating.
Or as the authors of the State of the Cryosphere 2024 Report put it, "We cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice."
